Search results for "spatio-temporal model"

A Spatio-temporal Model Based on the SVD to Analyze Daily Average Temperature Across the Sicily Region

2013

Mapping child maltreatment risk: a 12-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood influences.

2017

Abstract Background ‘Place’ matters in understanding prevalence variations and inequalities in child maltreatment risk. However, most studies examining ecological variations in child maltreatment risk fail to take into account the implications of the spatial and temporal dimensions of neighborhoods. In this study, we conduct a high-resolution small-area study to analyze the influence of neighborhood characteristics on the spatio-temporal epidemiology of child maltreatment risk. Methods We conducted a 12-year (2004–2015) small-area Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemiological study with all families with child maltreatment protection measures in the city of Valencia, Spain. As neighborhood units…

Identifying territories using presence-only citizen science data : An application to the Finnish wolf population

2022

Citizens, community groups and local institutions participate in voluntary biological monitoring of population status and trends by providing species data e.g. for regulations and conservation. Sophisticated statistical methods are required to unlock the potential of such data in the assessment of wildlife populations. We develop a statistical modelling framework for identifying territories based on presence-only citizen science data. The framework can be used to jointly estimate the number of active animal territories and their locations in time. Our approach is based on a data generating model which consists of a dynamic submodel for the appearance/removal of territories and an observatio…

Bayesian temporal and spatio-temporal Markov switching models for the detection of influenza outbreaks

2017

Influenza is a disease which affects millions of people every year and causes hundreds of thousends of deads every year. This disease causes substantial direct and indirect costs every year. The influenza epidemic have a particular behavior which shapes the statistical methods for their detection. Seasonal epidemics happen virtually every year in the temperate parts of the globe during the cold months and extend throughout whole regions, countries and even continents. Besides the seasonal epidemics, some nonseasonal epidemics can be observed at unexpected times, usually caused by strains which jump the barrier between animals and humans, as happened with the well known Swine Flu epidemic, w…

ToToPI (Topographie de Tours Pré-Industriel), a GIS for understanding urban dynamics based on the OH_FET model (Social Use, Space and Time)

2009

http://proceedings.caaconference.org/files/2009/41_Rodier_et_al_CAA2009.pdf; International audience; ToToPI, for Topography of Tours Pre-Industrial, is a GIS for studying of the city of Tours (France) in large time span. The concepts for understanding the urban dynamic is based on considering the town as a set of complex objects, taking a systemic approach. The town system used to study the urban fabric over large time spans is composed of three sub-systems relating to historical objects from the level of the excavation to that of the former urban space: function (social use), space (location, surface area and morphology) and time (dating, duration and chronology). The historical object is …

Spatio-temporal small area surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic

2022

Abstract The emergence of COVID-19 requires new effective tools for epidemiological surveillance. Spatio-temporal disease mapping models, which allow dealing with small units of analysis, are a priority in this context. These models provide geographically detailed and temporally updated overviews of the current state of the pandemic, making public health interventions more effective. These models also allow estimating epidemiological indicators highly demanded for COVID-19 surveillance, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R t , even for small areas. In this paper, we propose a new spatio-temporal spline model particularly suited for COVID-19 surveillance, which allows estimating a…

Spatio-temporal models: a simple model based on two SVDs for large datasets

2011

Spatio-temporal analysis of the Covid-19 spread in Italy by Bayesian hierarchical models

2021

In this paper, we investigate the spatio-temporal spread pattern of the virus Covid-19 in Italy, during the first wave of infections, from February to October 2020. We provide a disease mapping of the virus infections, by using the Besag-Yorke-Molliè model and its spatio-temporal extensions. Our results confirm the effectiveness of the lockdown action, and show that, during the first wave, the virus spread by an inhomogeneous spatial trend and each province was characterised by a specific temporal trend, independent of the temporal evolution of the observed cases in the other provinces

Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy

2021

This paper investigates the spatio-temporal spread pattern of COVID-19 in Italy, during the first wave of infections, from February to October 2020. Disease mappings of the virus infections by using the Besag–York–Mollié model and some spatio-temporal extensions are provided. This modeling framework, which includes a temporal component, allows the studying of the time evolution of the spread pattern among the 107 Italian provinces. The focus is on the effect of citizens’ mobility patterns, represented here by the three distinct phases of the Italian virus first wave, identified by the Italian government, also characterized by the lockdown period. Results show the effectiveness of the lockdo…

Continuum: A spatiotemporal data model to represent and qualify filiation relationships

2013

International audience; This work introduces an ontology-based spatio-temporal data model to represent entities evolving in space and time. A dynamic phenomenon generates a complex relationship network between the entities involved in the process. At the abstract level, the relationships can be identity or topological filiations. The existence of an identity filiation depends on whether the object changes its identity or not. On the other hand, topological filiations are based exclusively on the spatial component, like in the case of growth, reduction, merging or splitting. When combining identity and topological filiations, six filiation relationships are obtained, forming a second abstrac…